NBA 50% Filler, 50% basketball

               All year I have been trying to get a grasp on how I feel about this NBA season.  Obviously being a DC native I always have a vested interest in what my wizards do (if you remember my first article).  However as a generic NBA fan I find myself undecided.   Sometimes I’m all for it, others I’m not so interested.   I don’t really know how I feel, but I do know one thing, the games are too late and the season is too long. 
                First off we start with season which normally is 82 games which is entirely too long.  Everybody knows that after the first month of the season, for the most part the players go on cruise control until the month before the playoffs where teams are making a run to make the playoffs or are playing for better seeding.  Even in a condensed 66 game season which we had this year due to the lockout, we witnessed the same pattern of behavior.  The teams that know their good enough to be top teams in their respective conferences simply tread water until they really need to make a push to reclaim or claim their top spots.

                I know there are some diehard basketball fans that are going to argue against my point.  I’ve heard the arguments, but when you play six months of basketball (normal seasons it’s almost eight) and your biggest stories are Jeremy Lin, the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the L.A Clippers, it’s safe to label as uninteresting.  An undrafted point guard, who averaged 14.6 points and 6.2 assists a game (Lin), does not justify such a long drawn out season.  A team that finished 4^th from last in their conference (Timberwolves), does not justify such a long drawn out season.  A team that ended up making the playoffs for the first time since 2006 to be swept in the 2^nd round (Clippers) does not justify such a long drawn out season.

                We as fans are really only interested in what happens in the playoffs becomes it seems as if they as players are only interested in what happens in the playoffs.  Not only are we only interested in the playoffs but we are only interested in the latter round of the playoffs.  The NBA has a drastically unbalanced playing field in years past; some of the lower seeded teams that have made the playoffs didn’t even have winning records.   It’s a rarity that an 8^th seeded team beats a 1 seed, since the NBA has gone to a 16 team playoff in 1984 there have only been four upsets in which an 8 seed has defeated a 1 seed.

                In the 28 years of the NBA’s 16 team playoff format, all but one of those teams (Houston Rockets, 1995) has been ranked no lower than third in the standing of its respective conference.  Also out of those 28 championship teams 18 of them were the number one seed from either the eastern or western conference.  If we take the bottom 5 seeds in each conference and add them that gives us 10 teams.  So if we take those 10 teams out of each of the last 28 playoff tournaments and add them all up that gives us 280.  If we take the 1995 Houston Rockets out of that 250 we are left with .03%, not 3%, .03%!  This means that statistically there is a 0% chance of teams being seeded 4-8 that make the playoffs to actually win the championship.  This goes to show that for the most part the first few rounds of the playoffs are just playoff minutia, as the weaker teams who have little to know chance are eliminated from the tournament.  The playoffs are normally 2 months long; we can do without the minutia. 

                I’m not sure what the solution is; go back to 5 game series in the first round (maybe even the second), shorten the NBA regular season, contract the league.  Whatever the solution I just want the NBA to give its fans more relevant competitive professional basketball.  Right now a great portion of what we are getting as fans is filler, and we deserve much, much, more. 

The Lebron argument

                Walk into any barbershop and throw out the name Lebron James and you will begin something reminiscent of poking a bee hive with a stick.  Some people love him, some people hate him, and everybody loves to argue where he fits amongst the league’s elite.  Whether they are arguing that he’s the best, or maybe even overrated, both sides have valid evidence supporting their arguments. 

                This season Lebron, 9 years into his NBA career,  was able to add a third league MVP to his list of accolades which include, 2004 Rookie of the year, the 2008 scoring title, 8 all-star appearances, 5 first-team All-NBA appearances, and 3 appearances on the All-NBA defensive team.  Despite all of these accomplishments, he has yet to achieve the ultimate goal of winning an NBA championship.  Last season James looked to be making huge steps to finally achieve that goal by joining fellow all-stars Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami. 

Unfortunately the Miami Heat not only were not able to obtain a championship, James earned himself a reputation of not being able to step up when his team needed him to the most.  In the first five games of what ended up being a six game series against the Dallas Mavericks for the championship, James had a total of 11 points.  How does someone who averages 26.7 points a game manage to post a mere 11 points in five 4^th quarters???  That means 2.2 points a game!  Then facing elimination in game 6 he was able to improve on that performance adding 7 points in a losing effort. 

Lebron apologists everywhere began to point the finger everywhere to place the blame for Lebron’s struggles.  They were convincing everyone that Chris Bosh was one of the worst players in the league.  They argued that his coach didn’t know what he is/was doing (no argument there).  They even broke down the officiating and tried to convince the world that James was being picked on.

                So James has come into this season to prove that last season was just an anomaly and he does have the “clutch gene”.  The something special that allows the NBA’s greats to not just carry their team’s weight on their backs but being able to do it when they need it the most.  With impressive stat lines against the New York Knicks in the first round averaging 27.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 2.2 steals, with 4.2 turnovers a game, through 5 games.   So far in four games against the Pacers, James is in the midst of putting up dominant numbers against an even stronger statistics with 30.5 points, 12.25 rebounds, 5.5 assists a game, 3 steals, 3 turnovers. 

                At 6’8, 250 pounds, James isn’t just big but he’s extremely athletic and his speed combined with his size makes him a freight train on the basketball court.  Yesterday in Indiana in response to losing two consecutive games to Indiana with a 40 point game where he also added 18 rebounds and 9 assists.  Furthermore, James was able to do this while playing and defending a variety of different positions all game, displaying his versatility.  All this shows me one thing.  LEBRON JAMES IS THE LEAGUE’S MOST DOMINANT player by far! 

There should be no more excuses for James shrinking in the spotlight.  Sure he’s not Michael, he’s not Kobe, and he doesn’t need to be.  There are other ways to win a basketball game other than hitting a game winner as the buzzer sounds.  Lebron has all the physical tools to do and has proved it time and time again on almost every NBA stage, time to do it on the big one, no excuses.

RG3! RG3! RG3!

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The National Concern

As the season starting last week the Washington Nationals were able to open up the season with a 2-1 win over the Chicago Cubs with star pitcher Stephen Strasburg on the mound.  Washington D.C sports fans felt a sense of reassurance about the team that has been predicted to at least contend for a wild card spot this season.  My twitter TL exploded with tweets and cheers of excitement reading, "Nats win" and "Let's go Nats" (follow me @devinhere by the way).  It was a good feeling for a fan base on the heels of disappointing consecutive seasons from the Redskins, Wizards, and the Capitals.  As I sat back and enjoyed the thought that, maybe we can finally have a team that over achieves or at least lives up to expectation, there was one thing that bothered me.  What about Strasburg?

In 2010, Steven Strasburg was having a phenomenal rookie season, he was living up to all the hype and all the speculation.  He was pumping life back into the fan base and bringing excitement to the team, all of his starts were filling all the seats in Nationals Park.  Then the typical Washington cloud of gloom made it's way over Nationals Park when the team announced that Strasburg had a torn UCL in his throwing elbow and would require Tommy John Surgery.   Three months into his career Strasburg was dealing with one of the most serious injuries a pitcher can have and was facing an uphill battle for a surgery that typically requires 12 to 18 months worth of rehab.

Remarkably Strasburg had an extremely succesful rehab and returned to the Nationals in the 2011 season to start 5 games, looking just as strong as he did before the injury.  Fans were able to retain hope for their star pitcher and look forward to seeing him be a keep piece in what is hopefully a season that becomes a playoff run in the 2012 season.  In the off season there was a lot of discussion on what precautions the team would make to avoid further complications with Strasburg's UCL.  Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo made it very clear that the team planned to limit the amount of innings Strasburg pitched this season, similar to how they limited Jordan Zimmermann who went through the same experience the season before.

The problem is Zimmermann's 160 inning pitch limit led to him being shut down for the season in late August.  If the Nationals plan to play in the playoffs this year it means they will need Strasburg's services in to at least October.  There are 162 games in an major league season, with the nationals 5 man rotation that means each starter is expected to pitch approximately 32 games(162/5=32).  Take away a few games assuming they are going to give Strasburg a lesser workload, let's say the a more reasonable number of starts for Strasburg is 28.  Which means if Strasburg is to make the entire season and still adhere to his strict pitch count he needs to average a little under 6 innings a game (162/28=5.786).

Obviously team manager Davey Johnson and G.M Rizzo haven't paid much attention to this stat, because Strasburg opened the season pitching 7 innings.  Obviously I'm not insisting that the answer is to simply sit him down every 5.786 innings but at the moment I really can't see the plan.  Precautions must be made to assure that this team is able to compete down the stretch.  Why not start the season with Strasburg in the bullpen for the first month or so?  Or why not keep John Lannan on the roster and have him alternate in and out of the starting rotation with Strasburg?  Ideally, I think the whole pitch limit thing should be thrown out the window contingent on where the team is sitting as the 160 inning limit approaches.  We'll see what happens with this one.

Without London

The Redskins have been extremely productive this off season, making blockbuster deals, and being very active at the start of free agency despite their salary cap limitations.  Fans have long waited for the Skins to take their aggressive off season mentality and combine that with SMART tactical moves, instead of blindly throwing money at players with big names.  However with all the moves the team has made what sticks out is one they haven’t made, re-signing London Fletcher.

                Many believe that it is inevitable that Fletcher re-signs with Washington, but some are beginning to worry.  With NFL free agency beginning 16 days ago the Redskins undisputed team captain, locker room leader, is still without a contract.  Being that Fletcher is an unrestricted free agent and has led the redskins in tackles every year since 2007, leading the entire league last year, he should be a hot commodity.  However, there have been no reports of the 36 year old, Fletcher negotiating or visiting with other teams; maybe that’s why fans seem confident he will return.  The question is, is that what’s best?

                Sure, Fletcher is a top producer on the field at this moment but every day that goes by marks another day that Fletcher is coming closer and closer to the end of his career which is normally preceded by a drop off in production.  Whenever a player exceeds a 10 year career in the league, leaning your franchise on the production of that player is like playing with fire.  Younger guys can recover from injuries quicker and easier, and can recover from a decline in production a bit easier, but an older guy it’s a different story.  Older guys bodies do not are not as resilient and heal slower, and when a guy is older especially a pro bowler, and the production drops off it normally indicates the player has reached the end of the line.  In either case with the older player the best solution is to replace him.

Stick with me here.  Fletcher has been the heart and soul of this Redskins team since the death of Sean Taylor, no question.  He wants to be compensated fairly for that and definitely should, but there are two problems; age and salary cap.  Tomorrow London Fletcher is the best fit for this Redskins team to start at middle linebacker, but what about the long term?  I’d assume Fletcher desires to have a contract of 3 years or more and be paid like one of the top middle linebackers in the game.  In 2009 Ray Lewis signed a 7 year, $50 million contract with the Baltimore Ravens, he was 33.  I’m not assuming that Fletcher is seeking a contract that extends well into his 40’s but I do thing that in NFL age he’s at the end of the line. 

                So why not just wait for the drop off, if it does come just release him or bench him and then replace him?  That sounds good in theory not so much in likelihood.  The best ways to get an immediate replacement at a position is draft a first rounder or sign a big name guy on the market.  As I mentioned earlier the Redskins will be hamstrung by salary cap limitations for the next two seasons (as it stands now), and with the trade for the second pick of the draft the Redskins have forfeited their first round picks in the 2012 and 2013 draft.  So I think its best that they go into the next 2 seasons having most starters and absolutely having the cornerstones of the team locked up. 

Despite the intangibles that Fletcher brings sometimes it is best to let a guy go before he falls apart in your hands.  If the Colts can make a decision to replace Peyton Manning and the Packers can make a decision to replace Brett Favre, the Redskins cannot be afraid to decide it may be best for the future of the franchise to move on without Fletcher, though he may have more left in the tank.  In my opinion the team may be better off going after a younger guy like Seattle’s 26 year old, free agent linebacker, David Hawthorne.  Thoughts?

Redskins's latest problem

On March 9th, 2012, the Washington Redskins made a monumental move in an effort to get the franchise going in the right direction.  They took a huge homerun swing in an effort to guarantee themselves one of the two top quarterback prospects in the 2012 NFL draft.  The redskins traded their 2012, 2013, 2014 first round draft picks, along with their second round pick in the 2012 draft in exchange for the 2nd overall pick in the 2012 draft.  With the Indianapolis Colt’s showing favorable interest in Stanford QB, Andrew Luck, it seems the Redskins will be selecting Baylor QB, Robert Griffin III.   

It’s a big risk any time you give up a single first round pick or second round pick let alone three (I know they gave up 4 but they got one in return).  None the less the fans were desperate for such a move.  After watching 17 games of Rex Grossman and John Beck, it was time to make an aggressive move and the team did just that.  The loss of draft picks would hurt, but Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan made smart personnel moves and decisions and the redskins had roughly $31 million in cap space going into the 2012 off season.  This would allow them not to suffer too badly by sacrificing multiple first round picks, so this is an investment for the future.  Last season the defense was back to form and now this season they’ll be getting a dynamic face of the franchise and getting him help in free agency.  CUE HAIL TO THE REDSKINS!!!!!!……this was March 9th.

On March 12th, with the NFL free agency period set to begin the following day, March 13th, Commissioner Roger Goodell decided that it was a good time to issue one of his more ridiculous inexplicable penalties.  The Washington Redskins were docked $36 million dollars from their salary cap and have only two years in which they can try to satisfy the penalty.  Meaning if they decide to take a salary reduction of $18 million in the 2012 NFL season and the other $18 in the 2013 NFL season they are allowed to.  The money that will be docked from the Redskins and the Cowboys will be dispersed throughout rest of the league excluding Seattle and Oakland who also had violations, but were not docked.  STOP THE MUSIC!  HOLD THE PHONE!  What?!?!?!  How did this happen?  

In 2010 the NFL and its players had a massive labor dispute which resulted in the 2010 season having no salary cap.  Meaning there were no restrictions to how much teams decided to spend on their players for that season.  Instead of this creating a spending frenzy to snatch up all the available players possible, only two teams took full advantage of this freedom, the Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys.  Reports are that the NFL’s commissioner’s office warned NFL teams several times of abusing the uncapped year, but at the same time all NFL contracts are approved or rejected by the NFL’s commission’s office.  

Roger Goodell is a no nonsense guy and sure doesn't mind being the bad guy when it comes to policing the league and enforcing NFL policy, but this is ridiculous. This is equivalent to a mother telling her son not to eat a cookie, then giving the kid the cookie and watch him eat it and then the next day she gives him a spanking.  Furthermore why do the other NFL teams get the money being docked?  And why wait until the day before free agency to pass down the punishment?  IT'S BEEN ALMOST 2 YEARS!  There are so many issues here.  Apparently there's a cap on an uncapped year, who knew?  We learn something new every day.

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